The market for solar district heating (SDH) has been growing very fast in the decade up to 2016.
In 2016 the Danish capacity of SDH increased by 240 MW.
In 2017 the amount of new SDH dropped with about 80 MW compared with 2016, and the total new installed SDH net capacity was 159 MW. This drop was mainly due to the end of an approximately 10% subsidy scheme at the end of 2016.
In 2018 the net change in SDH capacity was 23 MW.
In 2019 138 MW new SDH capacity was installed.
In 2020 the amount of new SDH capacity dropped below 20 MW and 2021 will most likely be at the same level as 2020.
The market for individual systems has been at a low level, in the range of 2 - 10 MW/year for the last 10 years, with a downward trending market.
The above numbers are based on data from The Danish Energy Agency.
In the period 2021 to 2022, only 2 systems with a total of 10,677 m2 have been installed.
In 2022, a total of 1,607,015 m2 of solar collectors with a capacity of 1,125 MWth have been installed in Denmark.
In 2023 there are plans to expand one plant and build 2 new solar plants. A total of 11,910 m2 of solar collectors with a capacity of 8.3 MWth are planned.
The spike in electricity prices seen in 2022 has made it clear how the solar thermal heating supply not only provides a low-cost heat, but also helps stabilize the overall heat price. This may represent an increasingly important argument for solar thermal.
From plants having a SDH system the feedback seems positive which is also seen from the interest in expanding their systems where possible. Many DH companies are extending their network connecting more customers to DH. Hence, their heat demand increases, several DH companies are interested in extending their SDH plant to again cover around 20% of the annual demand.
This may represent a small but not completely insignificant market in the coming years. However, in general the low-hanging fruits seem to have been picked in DK and presently there is no outlook towards a SDH market bouncing back.
The prices of HPs and electricity seems to have increased more than the cost of solar collectors so the balance may still tip in favour of SDH in the future. But it has to be more than “break even” compared to alternative options for SDH to be the most favourable solution and without seasonal storage the question of covering the rest of the demand remains for the DH companies even if they would be interested in SDH.